The Weekly BluRB — Oct. 7th, 2025

It’s Parents Weekend, but Nobody gets a Break from the Economy

Intro:

Welcome to the Weekly BluRB, a newsletter catered to students and professionals to get the latest news and insights on global markets. Get prepared for the week by reading four weekly stories circulating around equity markets, macro trends, geopolitics, and new business developments. And the best part: we’ll give you an informed view about where we think prices, policy, and trends are going in the near future. The content in these writings is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice.

US Economy: A Rough Ride

The Shutdown Showdown Continues — By: Sydney Sibrian

This Monday, Senate lawmakers returned for negotiations on a deal to end the nearly six-day government shutdown. Both sides of the aisle stand firm in resolve, so much so that there seems to be no end in sight. House Speaker Johnson contends that lawmakers have the entire month of October to reach an agreement; however, he failed to consider the limitations of the American people. Ripple effects have already begun, leaving many with uncertainty. 

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics shut down indefinitely, key economic reports go unseen. In August, unemployment reached a four-year high, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month. Without September’s key metrics, markets, households, and businesses are “flying blind” or on limited data. ADP’s job report, a private sector measure, recorded 32,000 jobs lost in September. Given that economists hoped for an increase of 45,000, there is concern that labor demand will fall in the coming months. 

The standard shutdown procedure furloughs approximately 750,000 federal employees. This hit to the labor force could impose a 0.1% loss in GDP, but it does not deter President Trump from pursuing mass layoffs. The White House Office of Management and Budget instructed agencies to view the shutdown as an opportunity to terminate federal workers, particularly those who do not align with the administration. This liberal interpretation of a federal and economic crisis clearly shows the prioritization of political opportunism over financial responsibility, especially when markets are in play. 

The stock market, however, is faring relatively well, hinging on factors beyond the shutdown. On Monday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed, while the Dow took heavy losses, falling 63 points. This boost comes after AMD announced a multi-billion-dollar partnership with OpenAI. The chip designer rose 23%. Comerica also drove markets up after agreeing to a $10.9 billion deal with Fifth Third Bancorp. Stocks aren’t the only thing on a hot streak; Gold traded near 4,000 an intra-day high. Some skeptics, such as Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warn that although the stock market is performing well now, a “drawdown” is likely to occur in the near future. All the American people can do is wait for informed data; for now, they are in a place where the economy continues to move even as the government stands still.

Market Moves: Bull Steepener, Bear Vibes, and Big Tech’s Sugar High — By: Henry Wang

If you blinked, you missed it: the 10-year Treasury yield quietly slipped to 4.09% by Thursday, down from 4.20% last Friday. Meanwhile, the 2-year came along for the ride, but not as dramatically, leaving us with a positive 2s/10s spread of +55 bps. So are we on track for some economic recovery? Don’t pop the champagne just yet. This shift says less about imminent recession and more about late-cycle easing expectations: investors see a softer growth path and more cuts ahead, but not a collapse in demand.

U.S. Macro: Data ISM Manufacturing — Still Below 50, but We’ll Take it — By: Henry Wang

The data flow was mixed, but the tone was unmistakably “slowing.” The ISM Manufacturing Index for September came in at 49.1, still contractionary, though modestly better than August’s figure, sitting at 48.7. Consumer Confidence fell sharply to 94.2, the weakest since April, with expectations stuck below the recession-watch threshold of 80. Labor signals pointed the same way: Challenger reported that year-to-date job cuts are the highest since 2020, while announced hiring plans are the weakest since 2009.

Meanwhile, JOLTS job openings ticked up slightly to 7.2 million but remained in a clear downtrend. With the federal shutdown delaying some official data, markets put more weight on these private reports, which added to the sense of caution.

Equities Ride the Rates Backdrop

Despite all the gloomy macro, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all hit fresh highs on Thursday. Why? Because lower yields are steroids for duration-sensitive tech stocks. Growth and technology names led, helped by the easing in yields. AI-linked semiconductors were standouts, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising about 2% on the week. Fair Isaac (FICO) spiked nearly 18% after a revamp of credit-score distribution, while peers Equifax and TransUnion dropped 8–11%. The pattern was clear: lower yields boosted duration-sensitive growth stocks, while sector-specific catalysts gave extra juice to certain names.

TLDR

Last week, Treasuries staged a polite bull steepener, stocks partied like the rate cycle was already over, and the macro data whispered “not so fast.” The market is stuck between relief at lower yields and unease about why yields are falling in the first place.

Global Macro: We’re looking on the Bright Side — By: Faith Spalding

We’ve had some gloomy outlooks the past couple weeks. Tariff turbulence continues, national and global tensions remain high, and the future remains incredibly uncertain. But we have some positive news: emerging markets are booming this year. One of the MSCI indexes, the benchmark index for emerging markets, has risen by 28% this year. Emerging markets were long considered to be in the shadow of the US economy, but are now outshining developed economies; an MSCI index for developed markets’ stock has underperformed growth by 17% this year. With a bullish outlook for the remainder of the year, investors are expecting continued momentum. Let’s look at some emerging market countries and see how they’re doing. 

Nigeria:

Nigerian Frontier markets are set to take a major hit in January 2026. The Capital Gains Tax (CGT) places a 30% tax on the sale of Nigerian shares sending waves of turbulence through Nigerian capital markets and spooking foreign equity investors. In a meeting organized with the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, highlighted the plan: investors who reinvest in fixed-income security or non-equity assets with proceeds gained from selling shares will be subject to a 25% CGT. 

While this may seem like the time for total freak-out within Nigerian capital markets, we should note that there is an annual exemption threshold of N$150 million, which Oyedele says excludes 99.9% of investors from the 25% CGT. According to him, the maneuver is “meant to channel more capital into productive equity that drives company growth, creates jobs, and supports long-term market sustainability.” At the same time, the tax-rate hike is intended to balance out monetary policy fluctuations: easing has been the name of the game of the Central Bank of Nigeria, which made the decision to cut interest rates from 27.5% to 27% last month. Bloomberg reports this was due to “sustained disinflation.” Governor Olayemi Cardoso expects this trend to continue as oil production improves and positively boosts foreign-exchange reserves. However, this may only bring in short term revenue. On another note, Nigeria’s NGX has been gaining momentum as equity markets surged early this week by N$787 billion, driven by appreciation in major stocks.

Unfortunately, this optimism may be soon tampered: the CGT could increase the amount of risk in the market, scaring off portfolio investors. According to Bukola Bankole, partner and corporate finance expert at TNP, “In Nigeria’s capital market, confidence remains the most valuable currency.” Reforms are clearly needed to widen trust in capital markets, and short term revenue boosts could be extremely detrimental. Lack of stable policy making drives these well-intentioned efforts, but this can ultimately lead to failure. With four months left to go until the CGT goes into effect, we’ll monitor how policymakers and investors alike react to the shift. 

Brazil:

Brazil isn’t flailing right now. Or at least that’s what central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo emphasized on Monday at an event hosted by the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation. According to Reuters, Galipolo highlighted “unmistakable signs” that Brazil’s economy is standing strong, pointing to a strong labor market. Brazil’s central bank left interest rates untouched last month, sitting at 15% (nearly a 20-year high). This came after the benchmark rate was raised by 450 points to repress inflation. August was a steady month, with unemployment sitting at 5.6% compared to last August’s rate of 6.6%, the lowest level since official records from the Pnad Contínua household survey began in 2012. The number of formally employed workers hit a high, up by 3.3% on the year. The effect has been positive: average worker income increased by 0.9% in the quarter through August to R$3,488. 

While August’s numbers are encouraging, Matheus Ferreira, an economist at the Tendência’s consulting firm, believes that this is indicative of unemployment leveling off. He noted to International Valor, “The number of employed people in the quarter ended in August fell 0.12%, the first drop after six straight increases.” Galipo also acknowledged weaknesses; while Brazil’s annual inflation rate dropped from 5.23% to 5.13% in August, these numbers remain well-above the country’s 3% target.

On a positive note, Brazil also seems to be resisting the blow from global tariff turbulence, with total exports valued at $30.5 billion USD. This is a 7.2% increase from 2024, ironically occurring alongside a 20.3% plunge in shipments to the US. Other countries haven’t been so lucky, for instance India’s Prime Minister Modi can’t seem to navigate his way out of the trade war. This comes as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks to carve a deal out with President Trump that ends the 40% import tariff imposed on the country. In addition to the 40% tariff imposed on imports from Brazil by the US, a 10% reciprocal tariff in place is in place, the two levies complicating relations between the two countries this summer. The two leaders had a reportedly “friendly chat” this Monday, with Lula seeking to reduce tariff rates to just 10%. While the positive call has provoked optimism, there’s no concrete framework in place for a reasonable deal yet. Let’s hope that collaboration remains consistent for both countries moving forward: we all know that’s rare enough these days. 

Singapore: Not an Emerging Market, we just like F1

This week, IPOs aren’t the talk of the town. The Singapore Grand Prix ended late last night, with F1 fans travelling across Asia and internationally to see the spectacle. With major traffic the past couple days, Singapore’s tourism boost has extended beyond borders: flight-bookings reveal travelers are coupling their race visit with trips to Japan, Thailand, and Indonesia. The event is also bringing big money, and big investors to the table. Trade forums like crypto conference Token2049 and the Milken Institute Asia Summit were scheduled around the race. Crypto buffs celebrated continued growth, while money managers at the Milken summit privately voiced fears over the difficult environment for returns and fundraising. 

In other news, the 3-month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) — a benchmark rate for residential mortgages and medium-term loans —  decreased to 1.44% this year. SORA tracks global interest rates to influence domestic rate cuts or hikes, closely watching September’s US fed rate cut of a quarter point. The low-interest environment is welcomed by consumers, who see their debt burdens easing. Singapore also saw a better performance than expected this year, revising their growth forecast this Monday from 1.5% to 2.5% year-on-year. According to the Ministry of Trade, May’s expected growth rate was 0-2%. GDP growth for Q2 sat at 4.4%, 0.1% up from the advance estimate. 

Although the weekend was filled with highs, (including George Russell bringing in a win for McLaren), the reality remains uncertain for Singapore’s economy. Singapore’s reciprocal tariff rate sits at 10%, and there’s no clear pathway has been carved out to ensure that new levies won’t impact major industries. However, optimism accompanies the revised positive growth outlook. If McLaren can make a comeback from the back of the grid, anything can happen. 

Story of the Week: Lucy Cox — Fast Fashion vs. the French

This past week, Chinese fast-fashion giant Shein announced they were opening their first physical store in Paris. Characterized by its dirt-cheap, but low-quality apparel and accessories that could previously only be ordered online, the decision to open a permanent, physical store is an aberration from the long-time business model Shein owed its success to: with an online-only model, there was little excess inventory that leads to losses for brands based on sales from physical stores. However, American tariff policy — including the removal of the de minimis exemption which removed duties for Chinese packages valued at below $800 — caused companies like Shein and Temu to raise their prices for American consumers and shift their focus to other markets, primarily in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Mexico. However, Shein’s decision to expand their business model and plant seeds in Europe is ruffling feathers in French commerce, politics, and fashion.

Shein’s Paris outlet is being conducted in partnership with the property group Societe des Grands Magasins (SGM), who runs department stores BHV Marais and Galeries Lafayette. However, Galeries Lafayette is stating that they are aiming to block the effort, citing their opposition to fast fashion. It is also important to note that Paris is widely considered the top fashion capital of the world, teeming with luxury fashion houses like Chanel, Dior, and Louis Vuitton, and coming during Paris Fashion Week, this announcement highlights the stark difference Shein’s presence would be in this city in particular. Leaders in the French fashion industry are not happy at all, with Yann Rivoallan, the head of the fashion retailers’ body Fédération Française du Prêt à Porter Féminin stating, “In front of the Paris City Hall, they are creating the new Shein megastore, which — after destroying dozens of French brands — aims to flood our market even more massively with disposable products.” 

On top of many fashion leaders seeing the presence of Shein as an affront to Paris luxury fashion, many French political leaders are taking issue with Shein’s move. For instance, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo also came out opposing the move, claiming it threatens her goals to promote sustainable commerce goals in Paris. At the beginning of the summer, before Shein made the announcement, French lawmakers backed a draft law regulating fast fashion, with one of its provisions blocking companies like Shein from advertising. Backlash against the recent announcement could provide the tailwinds for this bill to be adopted.

The market and cultural consequences of Shein’s arrival to Paris will undoubtedly be disruptive. To many, Shein represents the antithesis of the luxury fashion Paris is known globally for. It will be up to the business and political leaders of Paris to decide if their future lies in fast fashion, or if tradition will prevail.