The Weekly BluRB — November 25th, 2025

Intro:

Welcome to the Weekly BluRB, a newsletter catered to students and professionals seeking the latest news and insights on global markets. Get prepared for the week by reading four stories circulating around equity markets, macro trends, geopolitics, and new business developments. And the best part: we’ll give you an informed view about where we think prices, policy, and trends are going in the near future. The content in these writings is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice.

US Macro: A Whole Lot of Nvidia

Looming over last week was speculation around Nvidia’s earnings call for third quarter fiscal 2026, released a week ago this Wednesday. According to NYSE Insider Jay Woods, the report is the biggest indicator of the success of shortcomings of our “bend don’t break market”, giving Wall Street a clearer picture of the strength of the AI market. 

The industry is distinctly transforming the valuations environment; interest rates are at the lowest levels in a century, while the valuation of the AI field is higher than right before the burst of the .com bubble. Analysts expected Nvidia to report $55.4 billion in revenue for the fiscal-2026 third quarter. However, the earnings call confirmed whispers on Wall Street forecasting even higher valuations. Nvidia’s sales grew 62% year-over-year, valued at $57 billion for the October quarter. 

Figure 1: Nvidia quarterly revenue

These numbers are more than strong — they exceed expectations. Nvidia is the titan of the market for data center GPUs. Valued at $5 trillion, the chipmaker is the world’s leading company based on market capitalization. But behind the enthusiasm looms a deep concern of an AI bubble that may burst. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang immediately brushed off concerns, asserting, “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

Yet skeptics like Michael Burry are furiously warning investors and consumers that the AI bubble burst is near, the “Big Short” inspiration hailing the boom a “glorious folly” in a recent substack post. Burry specifically targeted Nvidia, writing, “And once again there is a Cisco at the center of it all, with the picks and shovels for all and the expansive vision to go with it.” Burry makes an apt comparison: Cisco Systems’ stock rose by a dramatic 3,800% from 1995 to 2000. The tech company was the most valuable company in the world, worth over $560 billion. But in 2000, the firm’s stock fell by more than 80% and effectively collapsed. — The “burst” of the .com bubble.

Start-ups like OpenAI and Anthropic have sky-high valuations, sitting at $500 billion and $350 billion, respectively. In 2024, US private AI investment grew to $109.1 billion. There’s clearly similarities in the valuation environment when comparing the .com bubble to the supposed AI bubble. While we can’t take one man’s word entirely, Burry certainly seems to have have ruffled the chipmaker’s feathers. Amid his escalating social media posts, Nvidia circulated a private memo explicitly calling out Burry and encouraging analysts to push back on his claims.

This comes after markets experienced volatility leading up to the release of Nvidia’s report. Last Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 498.50 points, or 1.07%, closing at 46,091.74. The S&P 500 settled at 6,617.32, down 0.83%. This was the S&P’s longest slide since August, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.21%, finishing at 22,432.85. Chaos in the tech sector remains the real reason for the lag; Nvidia fell by 3% while Amazon faced a 4% slump. 

According to AMP senior economist Diana Mousina, the US tech sector certainly has many ‘bubble-like’ characteristics, but since AI use still in its early stages, there is more upside for tech earnings. It seems like there’s still room for movement in the markets. There may be no reason to get antsy yet, but our call may change if volatility continues. 

US News: Post-Shutdown Status Update

This Sunday, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the government shutdown created an $11 billion hit to the US economy. Despite the damage, Bessent asserts that he sees no risk of recession for the entire economy, although sectors like housing have been in recession. (All thanks to interest rates…) 

Growth is expected to see a minor rise over the next year, with the National Association for Business Economics forecast survey projecting a 2% median outlook of growth, up from 1.8% in October. Of course, growth is a double-edged sword; while Bessent remains optimistic, inflation and unemployment are in a “sticky” territory. The current inflation rate rests at 3%, with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed as a result of  (you know it)… the government shutdown. Unemployment sits at 4.4% in September’s data, though analysts expect a .1% increase by the end of the year. 

Driven by inflation, the affordability crisis continues to drive the price of groceries up. Food prices have risen by 25% since 2021, yet the volume of food consumption is down by 5%. According to NIQ data provided to Forbes, prices of the top 10 most consumed food categories have increased by 60% on average since 2019. Eggs, milk, coffee, and beef are among the affected. Yet, wage growth over the same period sat at 22%.

The disproportionate balance between the two is a harsh reminder for many Americans as Thanksgiving approaches; as of 2024, 35 million Americans live below the poverty line.

Global Macro: Britain’s Budget Chaos

The United Kingdom’s 2026 Budget is set to be announced this Wednesday, with expectations that taxes will be increased and spending will be cut. Britain’s labor party is preparing for one of its largest tax assertions in recent memory, the second major increase during the tenure of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. 

Unfortunately, Ms. Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer have found themselves  at an awkward crossroads: growth is weak, unemployment is rising, and every solution will likely anger voters. Reeves may attempt to appease voters by targeting Britain’s cost of living, but she is widely disliked: a recent poll revealing she is the most unpopular chancellor since the 1970s. Starmer’s favorability is also significantly lower than his Conservative counterparts across the aisle, amounting to a (disastrous) 71% disapproval rating in a poll released this week. 

The taxes in Reeves’ budget are expected to fill a fiscal “black hole” of £22 to £30 billion pounds, inherited from undercounting errors under former Conservative predecessors This is the second major tax increase of the Chancellor’s term, last year’s amounting to £40 billion. While at the time Reeves emphasized “this is not a budget we would want to repeat,” many are raising their eyebrows — analysts expect a £20 to £30 billion pound tax hike this year.

Figure 2: Trends in the four largest taxes (United Kingdom)

Bond markets will be the ultimate make-or-break for the budget, as the 2022 bond-crisis triggered by Liz Truss remains fresh in the recent memory of many investors.

While long-dated UK bonds have done nominally well this year compared to other G7 economies, Reeves destroyed her own credibility earlier this month after seeming to reverse direction on income tax heights, shocking investors and adding temporary uncertainty into the gilt market. Given Reeves’ shaky performance, her budget could be taken as fiscally irresponsible. If the budget lacks potential to raise sufficient revenue and spending cuts expand national debt, a major-sell off could be triggered. 

For Starmer and Reeves, this is a major moment for Britain’s economy. As markets remain on edge, the flailing credibility of the labor party is on the table. We’ll check back in next week.

Story of the Week: Crisis in the Hemp Industry — Yarden Pri-Noy

Nearly two weeks ago, Congress passed a bill ending the 43-day-long government shutdown — the longest shutdown in US history. The budget deal, previously suspended in partisan gridlock, finally passed when six House Democrats voted alongside Republicans to reopen the government. 

Buried deep in the fine print of the shutdown-ending deal, on page 163, in Title VII of Division B, was a provision to shut down the hemp industry — wiping out the regulatory frameworks adopted by several states, taking away consumer choice and destroying the livelihoods of hemp farmers. Specifically, the provision did three things: it reclassified nearly all hemp-derived intoxicants as federally illegal marijuana, it imposed a strict 0.4-mg-per-package THC cap on any consumer hemp product, and it banned synthetically converted cannabinoids.

The provision, set to kick in after one year, will have massive implications for the hemp market, ruining the investments of those who bet on such hemp products in the long run. The rapidly growing market for hemp-derived intoxicants, which exploded from around $200 million in 2020 to over $2.7 billion in 2023, must now deal with the effective recriminalization of its main products. It is important to note that cannabis dispensaries — which by definition sell “federally illegal” marijuana — were untouched by this provision. Dispensaries, while not technically legal under federal law, are de facto allowed to operate as long as the federal government refrains from raiding them. 

This, however, does mean the end of novelty CBD products being sold in convenience stores. According to Mitch McConnell, who spearheaded the legislation, its purpose is to restore the “original intent” of the 2018 Farm Bill, which Republicans claim unintentionally created a loophole allowing unregulated marijuana sales across the country. 

Not all Republicans are on board with the provision. Senator Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican, has expressed outrage over what he and many others view as a step in the wrong direction — away from legalization and towards government overreach. Sen. Paul has also criticized the deceptiveness of Congress in sneaking the provision into a deal to reopen the government. 

It remains to be seen how the hemp industry will deal with this provision, and whether it will survive. If there is one thing to learn from this — it’s to always pay attention to the fine print.