The Weekly BluRB — November 10th, 2025

Fragility: The Name of the Game

Intro:

Welcome to the Weekly BluRB, a newsletter catered to students and professionals to get the latest news and insights on global markets. Get prepared for the week by reading four weekly stories circulating around equity markets, macro trends, geopolitics, and new business developments. And the best part: we’ll give you an informed view about where we think prices, policy, and trends are going in the near future. The content in these writings is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice.

US Equities: Yield Curve Tug-of-War & Data Blindspots — Henry Wang

Market Summary

Stocks pulled back this week after a three-week run: the Nasdaq Composite dropped ~3% as deep-valued tech names came under pressure. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also slipped, with the S&P now about 2.4% below its record high.

Treasuries & Yield-curve Dynamics

Treasury yields edged lower as equity markets faltered and safe-haven flows increased. For example, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped toward ~4.09%. That said, some commentary notes the yield curve remains flattened and investors are still grappling with mixed signals from the labor market and the ongoing federal government shutdown. For equities, that means the discount-rate benefit from falling yields may be somewhat offset by growth worries and multiple compression risk for the most rate-sensitive stocks.

Shutdown, Shutdown, Shutdown

The prolonged U.S. government shutdown continues to hamper official data releases, leaving markets reliant on alternate indicators and elevating uncertainty. Meanwhile, alternative data show job cuts surged (e.g., ~153,000 announced in October), adding to concerns over the labor market even before official non-farm payrolls are published. This was the biggest reduction for the month in more than 20 years. Consumer and business sentiment also slipped to near its lowest on record this week, boosting concerns about a slower economic backdrop. It seemed the shutdown was nearing its end as the Democratic Party offered an opportunity to resolve it through a one-year extension of Medicaid tax credits. However, the proposal was rejected by the Republicans. Yet still, this Monday, the senate voted to end the government shutdown, sending the funding bill to the house.

Figure 1: Civilian Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Fund Flows & Credit Signals

Investor flows into U.S. equity funds jumped to a five-week high (~$12.6 billion) in the week ending November 5, with large-cap tech capturing the bulk (~$11.9 billion) and small‐cap seeing only modest interest. Bond-fund inflows shrank to a five-week low, suggesting some risk-asset preference remains but the backdrop is fragile. These flows show how markets are still willing to chase equity upside even amid rising caution.

Big Movers & Big Stock News of the Week

Nvidia (NVDA) rose ~2.2% on Monday after the company gained U.S. export clearance for its chips to the UAE, reinforcing its lead in AI infrastructure and helping offset broader tech weakness.

Amazon surged ~4% after announcing a $38 billion multiyear agreement with OpenAI to supply cloud services — evidence that the AI spending wave remains alive amid macro headwinds.

US News:

America First, Except for Argentinian Beef – Lucy Cox

Other than “MAGA,” “America First” seems to be the defining theme behind every Trump administration policy. From increasing tariffs, to raising the price for H1-B visas, to international deals promoting investment in America, President Trump’s policy focus has largely been about bringing business back to America. However, last month’s decision to quadruple low-tariff imports of Argentinian beef presents a stark contrast to the America First doctrine.

The Trump administration is arguing that the recent policy is to support American beef consumers by bringing prices down. After all, beef prices have risen 51% since 2020, as America’s beef cattle herd is the smallest it has been in 75 years. However, economists are arguing that this measure will do little to quickly bring down the cost of beef.

Figure 2 : Letter from GOP Lawmakers concerned about beef deal 

America’s cattlemen are also upset with the deal. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association released a statement saying Argentina’s expanded access to the American market “harms American cattlemen and women, while also interfering with the free market.” 14 GOP lawmakers sent a letter to the Trump administration, and while they accepted the goal of wanting to lower costs for consumers, they question the safety and “long-term fairness” of the deal. President Trump previously claimed on Air Force 1 that the deal would “help” Argentina which “we consider a very good country.”

Fed Rate Frenzy: Again? — Faith Spalding

On October 29, the US Federal Reserve Board cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year. Interest rates now sit at 4%, the lowest levels since 2022. This is the second time this year rates have been reduced, the Fed seeking to bring faster relief to struggling consumers and the floundering labor market. The ongoing issue is that as the job market treads water, inflation remains well over the Fed’s 2% benchmark target, currently sitting at 3%.

Mr. Powell cautioned that a further cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” leaving investors less confident: odds were lowered to a 65% chance of a further rate reduction, down from two weeks ago, when traders priced in a 90% chance of a cut as large or larger than a quarter percentage point. Clearly, economic outlooks for the short-term are more than mixed… and when will we stop hearing the word “uncertain?” 

A crucial factor to be considered is the Fed is operating without up-to-date data on the US economy. The government shutdown is halting the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing its October Jobs Report. Without the actual figures, the concern is that the level of risk in the market isn’t accurately estimated. Mr. Powell added, “What do you do when you’re driving in a fog? You slow down.” Kana Norimoto, macro strategist on Fidelity’s fixed income research team, sees the lack of data as a reason to not pursue further rates, noting, “I don’t think four weeks without data is long enough to feel like you’re flying completely blind, because economies don’t shift that quickly.” 

While outlooks remain cloudy, investors positively reacted to the dollar’s rise earlier last week, the Euro slipping to $1.1505 against the dollar. This is the lowest rate for the Euro since August, and consequently, a three-month high for the US. The lag can partially be attributed to the impact of tariffs on the European trade system, slowing down the time it takes for suppliers to deliver material to factories. 

Overall, the dollar still remains in the gray area; while the shutdown seems to be nearing its end, the data remains delayed, and accordingly, our picture of the economy is less accurate. 

Global Macro: China Plays Chess, not Checkers — Faith Spalding

We’re shifting our focus back to China, where President Xi Jinping has been at odds with President Trump in the months following the White House’s wide-ranging tariff assertions. The two met two weeks ago in Gyeongju, South Korea before the highly-anticipated APEC summit, appearing to call a “truce” and deescalation of trade conflict. The framework announced by the two global superpowers cuts the White House’s “Fentanyl tariff” on Chinese goods from 20% to 10% and suspends certain export controls, while restarting China’s purchase process of soybeans and lifting some restrictions on rare earth metals. Although President Trump hailed the “amazing” meeting as a “12” on the 10-point scale, takeaways reveal a consequential shift in the balance of global economic power.

For Beijing, this is a hard-won battle. In the months following President Trump’s inauguration, the US and China have engaged in frequent tit-for-tat tariff assertions. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has hit the US with several hard blows, including last month’s placement of export limitations on rare earth minerals, which was poised to hit the semiconductor and chips industries hard. Moreover, since May, Chinese purchases of US soybeans have been at net-zero. With US farmers facing the brunt of the burden, President Trump’s Argentinian bailout didn’t sit well with struggling rural communities. However, last week’s deal may provide relief at long last — hopefully, not too late. China has agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans in the last two months of 2025, additionally creating a pathway for 25 million metric tons of soybeans to be purchased each year until 2028.

While it seems that the US is getting a reprieve from its strong reprimand, we’re at less of a bargaining advantage: China didn’t really lose anything, merely conceeding the tariffs that were a reaction to longterm American aggravation. While President Trump’s gains are immediate, China’s playing the long game. Xi now knows that to win future tariff disputes, the US will respond when we’re feeling pressure on multiple sides. Right now, Americans have taken a major hit, and China has walked away with the upper-hand. Isolationist US trade policy has proven itself to be highly consequential — not just for the global trade system — but for America itself.

Story of the Week: Sudan in Crisis — Faith Spalding

The reality on the ground in the Darfur region of Sudan is unimaginable: El-Fashir has fallen. The city experienced 19 months of siege, perpetrated by the insurgent Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia group descending from the Janjaweed forces. In a starkly similar fashion to the 2003 genocide in Darfur, the RSF has systematically executed civilians in El-Fashir and surrounding areas.

Reports include a massacre of over 400 people in what was El-Fashir’s only operational hospital, where pregnant mothers and healthcare professionals were mercilessly killed. Videos circulating on social media show groups of men rounded up and brutalized. Overwhelmingly, the conflict has resulted in the deaths of thousands and the displacement of over 14 million people, many fleeing to neighboring countries like Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan. 

For survivors fleeing El-Fashir to Tawila, a neighboring province approximately 50 km away, hope is not yet in reach. In survivor accounts to the New York Times, thousands have fled the city to escape the massacres, facing beatings, robbery, and sexual violence on the way to temporary safety. Particularly harrowing is the near-absence of teenage boys and men who have made the journey to Tawila alive. For Sudan, this is more than a crisis: this is ethnic cleansing, bordering on genocide. But how has the RSF, Sudan’s most powerful military group, gained such dominance?

Sudan was plunged into the current conflict following the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Al-Bashir had been in power in 1989, and remains wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes of genocide in Darfur in 2003-2004. For a brief period, a joint military-civilian government structure was in place following al-Bashir’s ousting, until a staged coup in 2021 by the head of the armed forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as “Hemedti”. Yet the alliance quickly fractured. By 2023, Sudan was plunged into civil war after a struggle broke out between the Sudanese army (SAF), and the RSF. 

The RSF was founded in 2013 by al-Burhnan and Hemedti, absorbing many former janjaweed militants into its ranks. According to a 2019 investigation from Global Witness, the militia group operates with near-total financial autonomy. It seems that the group isn’t historically short of funding; the RSF allege over $1.027 billion that was used to stabilize Sudanese banks after the economic and civil crisis that led to al-Bashir’s ousting. 

Gold is integral to the RSF’s power. The militia group has control of the Jamel Abel gold mines in Darfur, sourcing additional revenue by sending mercenaries to Yemen. Crucially, Global Witness revealed that the RSF has ties to Al Gunade, a major gold trading company. This sophisticated funding model has accordingly “captured” the Sudanese gold economy. According to Swiss Info, data from Sudan’s central bank indicates that the UAE imported nearly 90% of Sudan’s official gold exports in the first half of 2025. Further investigation by The Sentry connected companies in Dubai to illicit money-laundering schemes of Sudanese gold on behalf of RSF financiers. 

According to Mark Ummel, head of commodities at Swissaid, “It is conflict gold… Whether it is coming from RSF or from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).” The connection between Sudan and the UAE through gold is more than alarming — the country is actively contributing to ethnic cleansing. In a recent report by the Wall Street Journal, US intelligence indicates that the UAE provides RSF with weapons, most recently increasing shipments of Chinese drones.

The RSF has deliberately targeted the Masalit and other non-Arab communities throughout the western Darfur region since 2024. Now that El-Fashir has fallen, non-Arab ethnic groups like the Fur, Zaghawa, and Berti are being systematically killed, often in door-to-door executions. Neighboring communities like Tawila are now at risk; if the RSF makes territorial advances, the thousands seeking refuge in the province could be in immediate harm’s way. 

While experts at the United Nations report “grave concern”, action is not being taken fast enough. Ultimately, as the weight of bureaucracy delays any meaningful effort to stop the crisis, tragedy will continue. We’ve seen this before: from Rwanda to Bosnia, the inaction of the international community will only lead to more bloodshed. While we worry about uncertain economic outlooks, Sudanese citizens in El-Fashir remain in fear for their lives. We must remember our privilege and refuse to turn a blind-eye to those who have enabled the brutalities in Darfur.